3 Coefficient Quadratic Regression of coal usage vs. temperature

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lsayre
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Post by lsayre » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 10:02 am

I was doing a non linear 3 coefficient quadratic regression of my coal usage data vs. the days mean temperature, and I came up with this equation which can totally replace my need for calculating HDD's, and which yields to within a very high order of precision the same results as HDD's across the entire range of temperatures which require the burning of coal at my house:

The equation:
Daily anthracite anticipated to be burned =92.9382518017051-1.38427900690035*X+0.0000484934888697981*X^2
(where 'X' = the days arithmetic mean temperature)

This equation is highly unique and specific to my house, and it includes daily coal burned to provide DHW. Every house clearly has a similar equation.

When solved for 65 degrees as the days mean temperature it yields 3.165 lbs., which I take to be my calculated daily mean or average coal consumption related to DHW only.

This equation plus about $3.50 might get me a nice cup of coffee at Starbucks.

 
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swyman
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Post by swyman » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 10:06 am

Can't you just stick to building rockets!

 
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lsayre
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Post by lsayre » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 10:17 am

It was easy to come up with. Just place all of your data to be regressed into a spreadsheet in two columns, one column for mean daily temp. and one column for coal burned on that day, then copy all of the data, and lastly paste it into this websites non-linear regression data-box where it says "paste your data here", and hit "Submit". Bingo, out comes the quadratic equation. A child could do it. I'm far from being a rocket scientist. I take the easy way out.

http://polynomialregression.drque.net/online.php

PS: I tried entering my data directly into this website, but this website will only generate a quadratic equation if the data is copied and pasted from a spreadsheet for some odd reason. You must feed it as it anticipates to be fed I guess.

 
scalabro
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Post by scalabro » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 11:57 am

Or in layman’s terms....

The colder it is outside the more coal you burn.


 
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tsb
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Post by tsb » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 12:32 pm

My wife does sudoku puzzles every day to make sure she is not going crazy, but she still is.

 
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warminmn
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Post by warminmn » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 12:39 pm

I cant even pronounce the posts title....

But regardless, as long as you enjoy figuring this stuff out, that is all that matters. Perhaps one or 2 others will try it too.

 
coalnewbie
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Post by coalnewbie » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 1:03 pm

and I am just sitting here picking my nose.

 
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coalkirk
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Post by coalkirk » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 2:49 pm

scalabro wrote:
Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 11:57 am
Or in layman’s terms....

The colder it is outside the more coal you burn.
Holy crap! And I thought I was just trying to stay warm.
I do admire you guys who track your usage, weigh your ashes, etc. But for me it comes down to this. Burn oil equals spend more money and be less warm. Burn coal equals spend less money and be warmer.


 
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CoalJockey
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Post by CoalJockey » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 7:09 pm

scalabro wrote:
Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 11:57 am
Or in layman’s terms....

The colder it is outside the more coal you burn.
:lol: :lol:

 
KLook
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Post by KLook » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 7:16 pm

Somewhere in that equation you have to have a calculation for snow pack around the house and on the roof.....plus the wind effect on your particular structure... I am sure you can do it....

Kevin

 
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CoalisCoolxWarm
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Post by CoalisCoolxWarm » Tue. Dec. 04, 2018 7:05 pm

Every time I plug my numbers into my ultimate equation I come up with the answer "42" ;)

 
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Rob R.
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Post by Rob R. » Tue. Dec. 04, 2018 8:04 pm

scalabro wrote:
Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 11:57 am
Or in layman’s terms....

The colder it is outside the more coal you burn.
You are a quick study.

 
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Post by DooHicky » Thu. Dec. 06, 2018 9:32 pm

And people call me "special"...lol

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