3 Coefficient Quadratic Regression of coal usage vs. temperature
- lsayre
- Member
- Posts: 21781
- Joined: Wed. Nov. 23, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Ohio
- Stoker Coal Boiler: AHS S130 Coal Gun
- Coal Size/Type: Lehigh Anthracite Pea
- Other Heating: Resistance Boiler (13.5 KW), ComfortMax 75
I was doing a non linear 3 coefficient quadratic regression of my coal usage data vs. the days mean temperature, and I came up with this equation which can totally replace my need for calculating HDD's, and which yields to within a very high order of precision the same results as HDD's across the entire range of temperatures which require the burning of coal at my house:
The equation:
Daily anthracite anticipated to be burned =92.9382518017051-1.38427900690035*X+0.0000484934888697981*X^2
(where 'X' = the days arithmetic mean temperature)
This equation is highly unique and specific to my house, and it includes daily coal burned to provide DHW. Every house clearly has a similar equation.
When solved for 65 degrees as the days mean temperature it yields 3.165 lbs., which I take to be my calculated daily mean or average coal consumption related to DHW only.
This equation plus about $3.50 might get me a nice cup of coffee at Starbucks.
The equation:
Daily anthracite anticipated to be burned =92.9382518017051-1.38427900690035*X+0.0000484934888697981*X^2
(where 'X' = the days arithmetic mean temperature)
This equation is highly unique and specific to my house, and it includes daily coal burned to provide DHW. Every house clearly has a similar equation.
When solved for 65 degrees as the days mean temperature it yields 3.165 lbs., which I take to be my calculated daily mean or average coal consumption related to DHW only.
This equation plus about $3.50 might get me a nice cup of coffee at Starbucks.
- lsayre
- Member
- Posts: 21781
- Joined: Wed. Nov. 23, 2005 9:17 pm
- Location: Ohio
- Stoker Coal Boiler: AHS S130 Coal Gun
- Coal Size/Type: Lehigh Anthracite Pea
- Other Heating: Resistance Boiler (13.5 KW), ComfortMax 75
It was easy to come up with. Just place all of your data to be regressed into a spreadsheet in two columns, one column for mean daily temp. and one column for coal burned on that day, then copy all of the data, and lastly paste it into this websites non-linear regression data-box where it says "paste your data here", and hit "Submit". Bingo, out comes the quadratic equation. A child could do it. I'm far from being a rocket scientist. I take the easy way out.
http://polynomialregression.drque.net/online.php
PS: I tried entering my data directly into this website, but this website will only generate a quadratic equation if the data is copied and pasted from a spreadsheet for some odd reason. You must feed it as it anticipates to be fed I guess.
http://polynomialregression.drque.net/online.php
PS: I tried entering my data directly into this website, but this website will only generate a quadratic equation if the data is copied and pasted from a spreadsheet for some odd reason. You must feed it as it anticipates to be fed I guess.
-
- Member
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- Joined: Wed. Oct. 03, 2012 9:53 am
- Location: Western Massachusetts
- Baseburners & Antiques: Crawford 40, PP Stewart No. 14, Abendroth Bros "Record 40"
- Coal Size/Type: Stove / Anthracite.
- Other Heating: Oil fired, forced hot air.
Or in layman’s terms....
The colder it is outside the more coal you burn.
The colder it is outside the more coal you burn.
- tsb
- Member
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- Joined: Wed. Jul. 30, 2008 8:38 pm
- Location: Douglassville, Pa
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- Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL Pioneer top vent
- Hand Fed Coal Stove: Saey Hanover II
- Baseburners & Antiques: Grander Golden Oak , Glenwood # 6
- Coal Size/Type: All of them
My wife does sudoku puzzles every day to make sure she is not going crazy, but she still is.
- warminmn
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- Location: Land of 11,842 lakes
- Hand Fed Coal Stove: Chubby Junior, Efel Nestor Martin, Riteway 37
- Coal Size/Type: nut and stove anthracite, lignite
- Other Heating: Wood and wear a wool shirt
I cant even pronounce the posts title....
But regardless, as long as you enjoy figuring this stuff out, that is all that matters. Perhaps one or 2 others will try it too.
But regardless, as long as you enjoy figuring this stuff out, that is all that matters. Perhaps one or 2 others will try it too.
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- Member
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- Joined: Sat. May. 24, 2008 4:26 pm
- Location: Chester, NY
- Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL AnthraKing 180K, Pocono110K,KStokr 90K, DVC
- Hand Fed Coal Stove: Invader 2
- Baseburners & Antiques: Wings Best, Glenwood #8(x2) Herald 116x
- Coal Size/Type: Rice,
- Other Heating: Heating Oil CH, Toyotomi OM 22
and I am just sitting here picking my nose.
- coalkirk
- Member
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- Joined: Wed. May. 17, 2006 8:12 pm
- Location: Forest Hill MD
- Stoker Coal Boiler: 1981 EFM DF520 retired
- Hand Fed Coal Stove: Jotul 507 on standby
- Coal Size/Type: Lehigh anthracite/rice coal
Holy crap! And I thought I was just trying to stay warm.
I do admire you guys who track your usage, weigh your ashes, etc. But for me it comes down to this. Burn oil equals spend more money and be less warm. Burn coal equals spend less money and be warmer.
- CoalJockey
- Verified Business Rep.
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- Location: Loysburg, PA
- Stoker Coal Boiler: Several EFM 520 refurbs...one 900, one 1300 mega-stoker
- Hand Fed Coal Stove: (2) Warm Morning Stoves
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- Member
- Posts: 5791
- Joined: Sun. Feb. 17, 2008 1:08 pm
- Location: Harrison, Tenn
- Other Heating: Wishing it was cold enough for coal here....not really
Somewhere in that equation you have to have a calculation for snow pack around the house and on the roof.....plus the wind effect on your particular structure... I am sure you can do it....
Kevin
Kevin
- CoalisCoolxWarm
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- Location: Western PA
- Stoker Coal Boiler: Keystoker KA-6
- Hand Fed Coal Furnace: old Sears rebuilt, bituminous- offline as of winter 2014
- Coal Size/Type: Anthracite Buckwheat
- Other Heating: Oil Boiler
Every time I plug my numbers into my ultimate equation I come up with the answer "42"