Heating oil price wild variation

 
hank2
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Post by hank2 » Fri. Jul. 08, 2022 4:55 pm

I just got a fill up on HO, which I've been putting off for a while. My use is pretty slow when it's strictly for indirect tank DHW. Takes some pounding during shoulder heating season.

There are precious few ( 2) local HO dealers that post their price online. I can take a good estimate of what my oil co. is charging by checking one online and adding about $.10 a gal. I also have a bad habit of frequently checking the Commodities market on HO and gasoline prices. Most HO dealer prices I've seen in the last month have been anywhere from $5.15 to $5.79 a gal. There was a large drop on HO and gas future contracts prices a couple days ago. Some of the drop disappeared already. Currently at about $3.68/gal for Aug. contracts. Normal times markup would be about $.40 to $.60 a gal over that.

My long time oil dealer bought out the coal and HO part from a long time feed mill business last year. After 100 years, none of the youngins wanted anything to do with it. I was talking to one of my guy's workers the other week and he told me that the HO part of their new subsidiary was one and the same as them. Current price for the regular business is $5.499/gal. The one and same alter identity has $4.509. When I called yesterday, I was given the higher price. I immediately said that their other identity was a dollar a gal. less and I knew what wholesale was. She quickly capitulated and I got the $4.50/gal.

Hard to even think that $4.50/gal. is a bargain but maybe it was. My last fill up in Feb. was $2.39/gal. Investigate and question everything on price. The age of the gouge over the last 10 years has gone full bore.


 
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BunkerdCaddis
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Post by BunkerdCaddis » Fri. Jul. 08, 2022 8:44 pm

Here in western Lancaster county there are two dealers who post their current price right on the truck as they're driving around. Generally they are close in price oddly enough to Bucks County Fuel who posts their current price online. These three are usually the lowest except for the dealer I buy from who beats them by $.20 or so. When I want a quick check of current pricing that's where I look. I topped my HO off the beginning of the week, when I called to schedule last week I was quoted $4.60 a gallon and when they delivered this week I was charged $4.44, still hard to swallow but I'm not planning on burning much of it this year at all. :|

 
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Post by McGiever » Sun. Jul. 10, 2022 9:03 am

Some using HO may find switching to propane to be worth the equipment change over.
Propane is stripped from “wet” NG. Wet NG is same price no matter if propane gets stepped out or not. So why not strip and get paid more for same.
I’m not in the know but Some on here have reported $1.68/gallon…sounds tempting as we all know that Marcellus and Utica NG gas plays are well established.

Your crystal ball may vary!!

 
hank2
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Post by hank2 » Wed. Jul. 13, 2022 1:41 am

Bunkerd, sounds like you did as good as you can right now.

I'm not real tuned into what propane costs in my area of Pa., but I see and hear of $3.50 a gal. I know it depends a whole lot on whether you own your own tank or rent it. I guess you have to know who to get it from. Used large tanks seem to go for big money. Recently I've seen a lot of advertising from propane guys far out of the area. The game seems to be offering you "free" tank rental in exchange for long term contract at their price.

 
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Post by coalnewbie » Wed. Oct. 05, 2022 3:06 pm

Well OPEC+ is now going to pump $2MM less oil from November thx to the BIG man and no more wasting SPR. So this HO stuff will soar. My crystal ball may also vary but this is how I see it from this morning. Try $8-10 a gallon later this winter. WOW you need to stock up on coal .... WAM didn't I say that?

 
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Post by anthony7812 » Wed. Oct. 05, 2022 3:55 pm

McGiever wrote:
Sun. Jul. 10, 2022 9:03 am
Some using HO may find switching to propane to be worth the equipment change over.
Propane is stripped from “wet” NG. Wet NG is same price no matter if propane gets stepped out or not. So why not strip and get paid more for same.
I’m not in the know but Some on here have reported $1.68/gallon…sounds tempting as we all know that Marcellus and Utica NG gas plays are well established.

Your crystal ball may vary!!
Marcellus so far is running about 97~98 % methane. Doesn’t have the propane content we find in the shale/oil plays near the gulf. High pressure, dry with very little NGL’s if any to be stripped. Extremely abundant but bottlenecks are pipes in the dirt. Shame we lost the drive to be energy independent in the name of “green energy”

 
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Post by coalnewbie » Fri. Oct. 07, 2022 1:40 pm

HO up at least 5% just today. it;s going to be cruel


 
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Post by mntbugy » Fri. Oct. 07, 2022 5:01 pm

Diesel was $4.50 a gallon yesterday. Today $4.89-$5.09. Off road 60 cent cheaper.

 
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Post by Sunny Boy » Fri. Oct. 07, 2022 6:55 pm

McGiever wrote:
Sun. Jul. 10, 2022 9:03 am
Some using HO may find switching to propane to be worth the equipment change over.
Propane is stripped from “wet” NG. Wet NG is same price no matter if propane gets stepped out or not. So why not strip and get paid more for same.
I’m not in the know but Some on here have reported $1.68/gallon…sounds tempting as we all know that Marcellus and Utica NG gas plays are well established.

Your crystal ball may vary!!
At that price I'd be using pro-pain. We're double that.

Cuomo screwed us by giving in the a few enviro-mental whackos and banned all fracking in NYS, so the pro-pain industry said screw NY and our prices have been much higher ever since.

https://www.nyserda.ny.gov/Researchers-and-Policy ... ane-Prices

Paul

 
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Post by Rob R. » Fri. Oct. 07, 2022 8:00 pm

Sunny Boy wrote:
Fri. Oct. 07, 2022 6:55 pm
At that price I'd be using pro-pain. We're double that.
In 15 years this is the first time I can buy propane at a price that is competitive with coal. I doubt it will stay that way, but if it does for a few years I may need to reconsider what I am doing.

 
waytomany?s
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Post by waytomany?s » Sat. Oct. 08, 2022 7:26 am

Rob R. wrote:
Fri. Oct. 07, 2022 8:00 pm
In 15 years this is the first time I can buy propane at a price that is competitive with coal. I doubt it will stay that way, but if it does for a few years I may need to reconsider what I am doing.
What do prices run up there? Just got a delivery at work and it was 2.89/gallon. It was over $4/gallon at the Oneida TSC.

 
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Post by Rob R. » Sat. Oct. 08, 2022 7:30 am

I am in a small cooperative with an independent supplier and locked in at 1.99 for this season. I think a lot of others are paying close to $3, depending on volume.

 
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Post by waytomany?s » Sat. Oct. 08, 2022 7:44 am

Rob R. wrote:
Fri. Oct. 07, 2022 8:00 pm
In 15 years this is the first time I can buy propane at a price that is competitive with coal. I doubt it will stay that way, but if it does for a few years I may need to reconsider what I am doing.
What's your coal price? I did $450/ton for coal and $1.99 for propane on the calculator and coal was still better by $250.

 
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Post by Rob R. » Sat. Oct. 08, 2022 7:49 am

Local coal pricing is approaching $500/ton.

I bought a TT load in March for a fair price, but it is anyones guess what the next load will cost.

 
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Post by k-2 » Sat. Oct. 08, 2022 10:13 am

coalnewbie wrote:
Wed. Oct. 05, 2022 3:06 pm
Well OPEC+ is now going to pump $2MM less oil from November thx to the BIG man and no more wasting SPR. So this HO stuff will soar. My crystal ball may also vary but this is how I see it from this morning. Try $8-10 a gallon later this winter. WOW you need to stock up on coal .... WAM didn't I say that?
People will freeze. Many cant afford $5 gal.
Crude oil is shooting up for 3 or more reasons IMO. First we now have to import oil again so OPEC will once again set the price now. Second the SPR has already been sucked dry ,some of it going to China. Its now at the lowest level since 1984 so that supply is now off the market further restricting supply. War still going on possibly getting worse with no end in sight so Russia.s energy supply is off market as well. Not to mention their Nat gas pipe just got blown up. And lastly OPEC just cut production as predicted and were back to $100 a brl range. What else could possibly go wrong.


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