As I said before $4 heating oil

 
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Post by coalnewbie » Thu. May. 17, 2018 8:01 am

The express train is continuing and now there is an other item

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Re ... To-90.html

So am I continuing to guess an eventual NYSERDA price of $4 that this week is 27% over last years prices and headed upstairs fast. There is new impending regulation will put HO into a high price bracket for a long time. Don't tell me you only pay $2.50 or whatever as life is about trends not absolutes. 5% of the worlds HO distillate will soon became more precious. The confusing thing is there is plenty of oil around but refineries can't be built overnight or turn on a dime to process different fractions. Permian is about gasoline not HO.

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Post by Qtown1835 » Thu. May. 17, 2018 8:31 am

interesting trend. Has HO ever hit $4 before?

**Edit** Just googled it. It looks like in the last 30years the only time it was at $4+ was between March '08 and July'08
http://www.macrotrends.net/2479/heating-oil-price ... chart-data

 
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Post by coalnewbie » Thu. May. 17, 2018 8:41 am

You can't look it up that way. NYSERDA takes the average the customer pays. You need to factor in quantity discounts and whether or not you pay cash or credit. We are about $3.40 in places now so I am not so far off and headed there. So I was not originally predicting a return to 2008. At least I was not predicting that but perhaps now I am. The trend does not look good.

 
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Post by Qtown1835 » Thu. May. 17, 2018 9:54 am

coalnewbie wrote:
Thu. May. 17, 2018 8:41 am
You can't look it up that way. NYSERDA takes the average the customer pays. You need to factor in quantity discounts and whether or not you pay cash or credit. We are about $3.40 in places now so I am not so far off and headed there. So I was not originally predicting a return to 2008. At least I was not predicting that but perhaps now I am. The trend does not look good.
Oh ok. Im assuming the region will have a heavy influence on price as well.

 
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Post by k-2 » Thu. May. 17, 2018 10:30 am

I have oil as a backup but use painfully little oil. Over $3 a gallon its emergency use only.

 
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Post by coalnewbie » Sun. May. 20, 2018 6:41 pm

Another negative now is Maduro is back power in so VZ oil is absolutely in the toilet for years. The moribund economy has the bolivar currency down 99 percent in the last year and inflation at an annual 14,000 percent. Strike another negative for HO, truck diesel and airline fuel.

 
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Post by Richard S. » Sun. May. 20, 2018 7:53 pm

Let it go through the roof.... There is a new sheriff in town, the US is now or will be the top producer of oil in the world and will also hit record production this year. Higher oil prices can only spur more US production which will accelerate the end of reliance on foreign oil, the power OPEC has over this market will be greatly diminished. OPEC dropped production around January, US producers will take that market share and OPEC is not getting it back.

More high paying energy jobs, energy security and a stable oil market in the future.

Of the 19% imported in the following pie graph about 9% comes from Canada and that will continue to rise also. It might as well be labeled domestic.

Image


Image

 
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Post by coalnewbie » Mon. May. 21, 2018 8:07 am

Yes R with a great President and energy independence things are looking good. However, changing from sour to tight oil is causing refinery problems and those can't be solved overnight. My concerns with HO prices remains and this is becoming obvious from future contracts in May no less.

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Post by Rob R. » Mon. May. 21, 2018 8:51 am


 
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Post by coalnewbie » Mon. Sep. 24, 2018 7:25 pm

and months later the "experts" are waking up. Heating oil is on a tear right on cue.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/100-Oil-Is ... ility.html

 
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Post by KLook » Mon. Sep. 24, 2018 7:48 pm

Never doubted ya Newbie, and still burning none.....lol

Kevin

 
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Post by Qtown1835 » Wed. Sep. 26, 2018 7:41 am

"Pump Price" is $2.659 as of this morning in SEPA.

 
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Post by lsayre » Wed. Sep. 26, 2018 7:45 am

The Wall Street buzz is that $100 per barrel crude oil is coming. #2 heating oil will not cost $2.659 when crude oil hits and then tops $100 per barrel. And since a lot of propane comes from oil and oil related enterprise, its price will certainly rise as well.

 
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Post by coalnewbie » Wed. Sep. 26, 2018 8:34 am

QT we have had this discussion before an you are clearly not listening. NYSERDA for the lower HV this morning is $3.458 a gall. A more important dynamic is that the price is 23% up from last year and that is 25% over the year before. Airlines are buying futures like never before. Is PA better than NY period - no arguments here. Never lecture people who don't listen. Over and out.

 
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Post by Homesteader » Wed. Sep. 26, 2018 11:34 am

Here is the latest retail pricing and comparisons in our state.

https://www.ct.gov/deep/lib/deep/energy/shopp_sur ... prices.pdf

Up, Up, & away we go. :no1:

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