As I said before $4 heating oil

 
Qtown1835
Member
Posts: 705
Joined: Sat. Nov. 08, 2014 11:47 am
Location: Quakertown, PA
Stoker Coal Boiler: Keystoker '81 KA4 (online 1/16/17)
Coal Size/Type: WAS Lehigh Rice (TBD)
Other Heating: EFM SPK600

Post by Qtown1835 » Wed. Sep. 26, 2018 5:05 pm

coalnewbie wrote:
Wed. Sep. 26, 2018 8:34 am
QT we have had this discussion before an you are clearly not listening. NYSERDA for the lower HV this morning is $3.458 a gall. A more important dynamic is that the price is 23% up from last year and that is 25% over the year before. Airlines are buying futures like never before. Is PA better than NY period - no arguments here. Never lecture people who don't listen. Over and out.
Clearly i don't understand how the above numbers correlate to HO price. Consider it ignorance i guess, IDK? But from April to now the cash price has risen 4.1% $2.54 to $2.65. How long does it take for the increase to affect HO prices? Is it a year, 6 months?


 
CapeCoaler
Member
Posts: 6515
Joined: Sun. Feb. 10, 2008 3:48 pm
Location: Cape Cod, MA
Stoker Coal Boiler: want AA130
Hand Fed Coal Stove: DS Machine BS#4, Harman MKII, Hitzer 503,...
Coal Size/Type: Pea/Nut/Stove

Post by CapeCoaler » Thu. Sep. 27, 2018 7:20 am

The Steamship Authority here on The Cape...
Is raising rates because their current balance sheet is not sufficient...
To cover their forecast of a 27% increase in fuel costs...
The go thru a large volume of fuel with all those ships...

 
hank2
Member
Posts: 846
Joined: Sat. Dec. 10, 2011 4:07 pm
Location: Berks County
Hand Fed Coal Stove: DS Machine 1400 WH ciculator; 1880's small cannon in reserve
Coal Size/Type: Nut
Other Heating: small New Yorker oil fired boiler; mostly used for domestic HW

Post by hank2 » Thu. Sep. 27, 2018 11:15 pm

I paid 2.599/ gal for HO delivery about 10 days a go. My oil guy is far from the cheapest, but they show up. I have a bad habit of regularly checking the wholesale commodities market prices on oil and gasoline. That price would already be at least $.10 a gal higher. Heating oil and gasoline used to remain near the same pre tax price. Commodities market HO is currently $23.5 cents gal. higher than gasoline ( $2.322). Maybe the unquenchable demand of the ULS diesel trucking market and the common practice of selling that as HO has turned it into a "as much as the market will bear" deal?

 
coalnewbie
Member
Posts: 8601
Joined: Sat. May. 24, 2008 4:26 pm
Location: Chester, NY
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL AnthraKing 180K, Pocono110K,KStokr 90K, DVC
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Invader 2
Baseburners & Antiques: Wings Best, Glenwood #8(x2) Herald 116x
Coal Size/Type: Rice,
Other Heating: Heating Oil CH, Toyotomi OM 22

Post by coalnewbie » Tue. Oct. 02, 2018 6:31 am

Apparently the "experts" have only now worked out that the oversupply of light crude oil is caused challenges for refiners that are not equipped to work with such large quantities of light tight oil. So they set up their Cat Crackers for heavy VZ stuff and now Permian lighter oil is not working nearly the same way. Massive money is bring spent but this is not an overnight issue.

You see I learned about CCs in junior high school and this gives me the advantage over the "experts" in predicting this stuff. So the HO/truck diesel/jet fuel faction is under supplied. One airline has gone as far as storing jet fuel on tankers. Add all the ships in the world soon to be running on this fraction as well and supplying the market will be a challenge for a while. So moving out of HO to an alternative supply of energy would be very smart right now. So as I can't get nat gas what would have be??? Let me think now......

The local idiots are busy chasing an ever an tighter wood supply, it's hilarious. Stove shops are working overtime. Oh well, time to clean out Sunnyside for another ultra cozy winter. That Latrobe guy was a genius.

 
coalnewbie
Member
Posts: 8601
Joined: Sat. May. 24, 2008 4:26 pm
Location: Chester, NY
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL AnthraKing 180K, Pocono110K,KStokr 90K, DVC
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Invader 2
Baseburners & Antiques: Wings Best, Glenwood #8(x2) Herald 116x
Coal Size/Type: Rice,
Other Heating: Heating Oil CH, Toyotomi OM 22

Post by coalnewbie » Sat. Nov. 03, 2018 5:15 am

I still like the relevance of this thread.

Trump is trying to flood the world with cheap gas before the midterms, Americans vote for cheap beer and gas. So HO is stuck at $3.50 (using my NYSERDA pricing index and again that does not mean what you pay). Iranian sanctions start to bite next week and nobody (including me) knows the outcome. So oil will be up to around $100-120 by the time Santa is dropping off presents.

It's all down to the severity of the winter (you are measuring those deer genitalia I trust). However, a real bitchen winter will mean NG to $5 and that $4 HO prediction coming true in spades. The rise in gas prices will be a Xmas bonus to Musk. It's almost worth buying Tesla stock. Meanwhile, my investment looks secure ...

Attachments

100_1044.JPG
.JPG | 510.5KB | 100_1044.JPG

 
coalnewbie
Member
Posts: 8601
Joined: Sat. May. 24, 2008 4:26 pm
Location: Chester, NY
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL AnthraKing 180K, Pocono110K,KStokr 90K, DVC
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Invader 2
Baseburners & Antiques: Wings Best, Glenwood #8(x2) Herald 116x
Coal Size/Type: Rice,
Other Heating: Heating Oil CH, Toyotomi OM 22

Post by coalnewbie » Mon. Nov. 05, 2018 8:22 pm

and .... NG prices just spiked ... With winter just five or so weeks away, the market is realizing that we will go into winter with the lowest gas storage since 2003, perhaps just 3.25 trillion cubic feet, well below the 3.8 Tcf that we saw last year. The rise up was to be expected since such low storage numbers yet still low pricing made clear that gas has been a greatly undervalued commodity. Got coal..

 
coalnewbie
Member
Posts: 8601
Joined: Sat. May. 24, 2008 4:26 pm
Location: Chester, NY
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL AnthraKing 180K, Pocono110K,KStokr 90K, DVC
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Invader 2
Baseburners & Antiques: Wings Best, Glenwood #8(x2) Herald 116x
Coal Size/Type: Rice,
Other Heating: Heating Oil CH, Toyotomi OM 22

Post by coalnewbie » Sat. Nov. 10, 2018 6:52 pm

and the "experts" are at last thinking this is a god idea.
The same happen this winter. Moreover, the higher gas prices rise, the more utilities switch to other sources of generation, including coal. That also undercuts demand on gas, relieving some of the market pressure. “Our analysis shows that gas-fired power plants are out of the money versus Powder River Basin coal-burning steam units by a wide margin and have been since the spring. To compete, gas prices would have to fall to about $2.75,” Barclays said.
BIG players in the NG market today and no BB, solar is a bust around here until the spring.

About time someone said coal is THE way to go this winter. Of course, this is a coal board but still. Be patient HO coming next. Interesting thing here is that Qatar is a huge producer of NG. Now if Iran just used some of their little subs to lay on the bottom of Hormuz and just threaten to sink one of those NG tankers ... They don't have to do it, just threaten. Insurance companies would have a cow and NG will soar.... just a little speculation ...


 
coalnewbie
Member
Posts: 8601
Joined: Sat. May. 24, 2008 4:26 pm
Location: Chester, NY
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL AnthraKing 180K, Pocono110K,KStokr 90K, DVC
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Invader 2
Baseburners & Antiques: Wings Best, Glenwood #8(x2) Herald 116x
Coal Size/Type: Rice,
Other Heating: Heating Oil CH, Toyotomi OM 22

Post by coalnewbie » Tue. Nov. 13, 2018 8:49 am

Wow, as I have said before I am not a commodity trader just an interested observer. HO does appear to be going down for now but again I think this is temporary. The big news right now appears to be NG. If the winter gets bad or there is another bad actor in the world (insert your theory here) then look out.

https://oilprice.com/commodity-price-charts?1&pag ... ural%20Gas

and no this is not the winter approaching pattern. It usually goes down from Sept to now.

 
coalnewbie
Member
Posts: 8601
Joined: Sat. May. 24, 2008 4:26 pm
Location: Chester, NY
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL AnthraKing 180K, Pocono110K,KStokr 90K, DVC
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Invader 2
Baseburners & Antiques: Wings Best, Glenwood #8(x2) Herald 116x
Coal Size/Type: Rice,
Other Heating: Heating Oil CH, Toyotomi OM 22

Post by coalnewbie » Wed. Nov. 14, 2018 7:06 am

err ummm, we are paying attention yes? Oh, you do not use NG so it does not matter ... sorry, think again.

https://oilprice.com/commodity-price-charts?1&pag ... ural%20Gas

 
User avatar
lsayre
Member
Posts: 21781
Joined: Wed. Nov. 23, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Ohio
Stoker Coal Boiler: AHS S130 Coal Gun
Coal Size/Type: Lehigh Anthracite Pea
Other Heating: Resistance Boiler (13.5 KW), ComfortMax 75

Post by lsayre » Wed. Nov. 14, 2018 8:25 am

Is there any reason as to why the price of NG is spiking upward like that? A winter demand factor? A gouge factor? An if oil is falling attempt to make up for it by raising the price of NG factor?

 
coalnewbie
Member
Posts: 8601
Joined: Sat. May. 24, 2008 4:26 pm
Location: Chester, NY
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL AnthraKing 180K, Pocono110K,KStokr 90K, DVC
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Invader 2
Baseburners & Antiques: Wings Best, Glenwood #8(x2) Herald 116x
Coal Size/Type: Rice,
Other Heating: Heating Oil CH, Toyotomi OM 22

Post by coalnewbie » Wed. Nov. 14, 2018 8:39 am

I just report what I see LS. You are the board metricist so it is for you to work out.

 
coalnewbie
Member
Posts: 8601
Joined: Sat. May. 24, 2008 4:26 pm
Location: Chester, NY
Hot Air Coal Stoker Stove: LL AnthraKing 180K, Pocono110K,KStokr 90K, DVC
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Invader 2
Baseburners & Antiques: Wings Best, Glenwood #8(x2) Herald 116x
Coal Size/Type: Rice,
Other Heating: Heating Oil CH, Toyotomi OM 22

Post by coalnewbie » Wed. Nov. 14, 2018 1:39 pm

So as stated $2.75 NG is about the equal of coal. If we could build enough solar panels they may be cheaper but the energy density is so small that is but a pipe dream and then there are those pesky clouds. So here we go, as NG approaches $5 and we have destroyed a lot of our coal burning facilities so our energy costs will skyrocket. The "experts" have just worked it all out now as just about everything runs on NG. Grab the popcorn, if the winter gets real bitchy things will get very interesting. At this rate we can get daily updates and be entertained.

Let's run the world on sunshine, lollipops and roses. We are all set for that mini ice age to start .... perfect timing.

 
User avatar
northernmainecoal
Member
Posts: 555
Joined: Wed. Jan. 22, 2014 8:33 am
Location: Aroostook County, Maine
Stoker Coal Boiler: EFM 520
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Hitzer 30-95
Baseburners & Antiques: Herald Baseheater #6
Coal Size/Type: Rice/Nut/Stove

Post by northernmainecoal » Wed. Nov. 14, 2018 1:45 pm

The mini ice age has begun, well below 0 with the wind chill today.

 
User avatar
warminmn
Member
Posts: 8108
Joined: Tue. Feb. 08, 2011 5:59 pm
Location: Land of 11,842 lakes
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Chubby Junior, Efel Nestor Martin, Riteway 37
Coal Size/Type: nut and stove anthracite, lignite
Other Heating: Wood and wear a wool shirt

Post by warminmn » Wed. Nov. 14, 2018 2:02 pm

And NG could quadruple twice in price, HO could go to $6 and propane $4, and most people will just keep paying it all before they get their house all dirty with coal or even wood :lol:

Some experts studying sunspots are claiming now that we are just months from a mini-ice age. I'll see you all down south if that happens

 
User avatar
lsayre
Member
Posts: 21781
Joined: Wed. Nov. 23, 2005 9:17 pm
Location: Ohio
Stoker Coal Boiler: AHS S130 Coal Gun
Coal Size/Type: Lehigh Anthracite Pea
Other Heating: Resistance Boiler (13.5 KW), ComfortMax 75

Post by lsayre » Wed. Nov. 14, 2018 2:07 pm

coalnewbie wrote:
Wed. Nov. 14, 2018 8:39 am
I just report what I see LS. You are the board metricist so it is for you to work out.
Some searching revealed that it is most likely a contrived "short squeeze" intended to wipe out the assets of the short sellers who had been pushing the price down.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortsqueeze.asp

My favorite short squeeze of all time took place in 1863/1864. Railroad magnate Cornelius Vanderbilt started amassing shares in the New York & Harlem railway in 1863 for as low as $5 per share. Not long after, in 1864 the New York City Council passed an ordnance allowing the New York & Harlem railway to build a major subway line. The stock ran up to $50 and then $75 per share. Some wise investors sensed the short sale opportunity of a lifetime, so they secretly contrived with members of the City Council to revoke the subway ordnance. The plan was that the revocation would plunge the stock back to $5 per share or perhaps lower. But first, the bunch of them (including Council members) sold a bunch of New York & Harlem railway shares they didn't yet own (this being the essence of short selling) at the $50 to $75 range, with the intent of actually buying the shares and thereby covering their short positions when the stock plummeted after the public announcement of the revocation of the ordnance. Cornelius Vanderbilt however spent nearly his entire fortune buying the stock after the revocation and he bought so much of it that it actually went up to $179 per share despite the terrible news that there would be no subway. This created a short squeeze in which all of the short sellers eventually had to buy the stock at $179 in order to cover their short positions and avoid going to prison, and many of them went bust in doing so. After that Cornelius literally owned the corrupt and bankrupt NYC Council members and they were reduced to being his puppets. Cornelius was later called a "Robber Baron" for his noble act of defending his railroad against collapse due to government corruption. I would surmise that many other "Robber Barons" could tell similar stories. And as a consequence of this and other famous short squeezes the Investment Act of 1934 "purportedly" made intentional short squeezing illegal (instead of making short selling illegal). Then much later, along came Elon Musk who announced that he was going to "burn the shorts", and did....


Post Reply

Return to “Wood, Pellets, Gas, Oil, Geothermal & Other Heating Types”