As I said before $4 heating oil

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Post By: coalnewbie » Wed. Nov. 14, 2018 3:36 pm

So your theory is that it is not a supply/use trade it's just Wall St playing well established games. The nice thing here is that your opinion is as good as anybody elses so who am I to argue. Here is another one.

We are sanctioning Russia on just about everything. The EU is very dependent on Russias gas many say to dependent. The US has announced that they can be competitive now and can supplly Europe too and gas terminals are being built on the coast of France and we are pushing into the Asian markets - WOW. If we force the EU to buy our gas it would have only been against firm commitments. So along comes a nasty winter (all of a sudden?) and NG stocks are just way too low (an accepted fact). So overnight the hedge funds smell a real short supply and dive in. The short players dare not be on the wrong side of that trade .... the popcorn is crackling ... must go. :D

Iran has the Ace of Trumps (excuse the pun) in that they can now cut off Qatars exports at a whim and Russia would have their backs. However, before announcing that one they need to buy a boat load of contracts.... hmmmm.


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Post By: lsayre » Fri. Nov. 16, 2018 5:23 am


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Post By: coalnewbie » Fri. Nov. 16, 2018 12:47 pm

Well IS, massive swings like that are the big boys playing at killing the shorts. Despite all this NG is in very short supply that is a fact. So where do we go from here, I have no idea but they are now importing NG from Russia into Boston. Yep, those CC windmills are a bust (of course). The biomass burners in MA area bust (yawn) as there no are no more hardwood stocks left to strip from Maine. Solar is a bust.... EVs are a .... you get the idea. Yep, ecolunies have wrecked the place. So if these are the precursors of a mini ice age we are screwed, so much for glo bull warming.

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Post By: KLook » Fri. Nov. 16, 2018 8:21 pm

The biomass burners got crowded out by the luny Brits wanting to buy pellets......they can grind up about any thing including alders to make a pellet.....keeps the port at Eastport busy.....

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Post By: CapeCoaler » Fri. Nov. 16, 2018 10:48 pm

There is a new project to put wind turbines out in the sound...
The first one took a while to die...
https://www.foxnews.com/us/kennedys-kochs-help-ki ... f-cape-cod
But two more pop up...
https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2018/05/23/t ... story.html
The pipelines are not yet big enough to supply the over sold NG on The Cape...
They over pressurized the lines to get more flow...
But some of the welds were only certified to 75 or 100 psi...
And they began to pop...
They put down a 5 year moratorium on new hookups...
It expires this year...
Lots of big new pipe in the ground now...
The Plymouth Nuke Plant gets shut down June 2019...
http://www.capeandislands.org/post/citizens-advis ... t#stream/0

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tsb
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Post By: tsb » Sun. Nov. 18, 2018 9:47 pm


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Post By: coalnewbie » Mon. Nov. 19, 2018 2:57 am

Because these products offer 3x daily leverage, a one day move greater than 33 per cent in either direction would blow up any one of them, nothing new here ... yawn. What could possibly go wrong with naked shorts? It is an ETN as opposed to an ETF not that that matters much. If you stand in front of an express train expect to get flattened. So the lawyers get rich, the investors go broke and the fund managers change their names and start again.

So the question is as the drop back to $4 was artificial, where do we go from here? Expect 10% up per week now and then it is down to the severity of the winter. Not many shorts are left alive now to fight the trend. If it's a bitch there is simply not enough gas. So in the end supply and demand is the driver. The NG cost rises until lots of people turn down the heating. Rolling blackouts? Tough to do with NG but you can overload the electric grid trying to catch up and stay warm. Wood supply is tight and breaking up the dining room chairs will only get you so far. Cold? you can go down to the garage and warm up in your EV for 2 hours until the battery runs out as well ... hahahaha, I am a riot.

It's time for the coal mines to close for the winter and for our heroes to take a well earned rest.

Damn, I should have put in more solar panels.... hahahahahhahaha, I slay myself.

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Post By: wilder11354 » Wed. Nov. 21, 2018 7:23 pm

NG is not a, do we have it issue. Its Transportation of it out of the area's its produced in to the markets. NY state, NJ, are the biggest nah Sayer's for gas lines being built. There are Thousands of wells in NEPA, that produce phenomenal amounts of NG..... problem..Transportation [email protected] PIPELINES! All newer and existing pipe lines can't even come close to handling max output of all these wells combined. NEVER will! So demand goes up supply limited by to small transportation to market... Will drive prices up in winter, then nose dive in non heating months. 4 NG wells 300 yards from where i sit. Lucky if they run 5% capacity out of any single one of them at any time.

17 MCF per hour is a lot NG. times 4 wells. BUT only 5% is run out of one well on that pad at anytime, not all 4 wells combined. Rotate wells to maintain, water, sediments, etc issues associated with deep/horizontal bored wells.


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Post By: coalnewbie » Thu. Nov. 22, 2018 5:25 am

Thank you for your informed response. So NG has no pipes. The middle distillate has no refineries.. As a result there is plenty of gas for everyone. Coal is dirt cheap. From a selfish point of view, not so bad. As we freeze to death the climate lunies have brought forward the climate assessment report from December to tomorrow. Can't let all that cold weather screw up their tax sucking research.

You can afford $5. Hey BB I will buy you a copy.

https://www.amazon.com/Dumb-Energy-Critique-Wind- ... mb+climate

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Post By: lsayre » Thu. Nov. 22, 2018 6:37 am

One day the price of NG spikes up ridiculously high and kills all of the short sellers, and brutally kills the (purportedly illegal) naked short sellers, then next day it simply falls back to where it was. An obvious contrived short squeeze. Since the Investment Act of 1934 makes intentional short squeezing illegal, when can we expect the perpetrators of this one day squeeze to be arrested?

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Post By: coalnewbie » Thu. Nov. 22, 2018 8:14 am

Oh LS, that one is easy. On the same day as all those "investors" who shorted the airline stocks before 9/11 are hung.

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Post By: coalnewbie » Tue. Nov. 27, 2018 2:50 am

The best thread that explains all if this.

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/4204-why-oil ... fun-stuff/

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Post By: coalnewbie » Wed. Nov. 28, 2018 2:56 pm

As we enter that 400 year ice age, NG is getting scarce. :D

https://oilprice.com/commodity-price-charts?1&pag ... ural%20Gas

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Post By: Sunny Boy » Sun. Dec. 02, 2018 10:20 am

wilder11354 wrote:
Wed. Nov. 21, 2018 7:23 pm
NG is not a, do we have it issue. Its Transportation of it out of the area's its produced in to the markets. NY state, NJ, are the biggest nah Sayer's for gas lines being built. There are Thousands of wells in NEPA, that produce phenomenal amounts of NG..... problem..Transportation [email protected] PIPELINES! All newer and existing pipe lines can't even come close to handling max output of all these wells combined. NEVER will! So demand goes up supply limited by to small transportation to market... Will drive prices up in winter, then nose dive in non heating months. 4 NG wells 300 yards from where i sit. Lucky if they run 5% capacity out of any single one of them at any time.

17 MCF per hour is a lot NG. times 4 wells. BUT only 5% is run out of one well on that pad at anytime, not all 4 wells combined. Rotate wells to maintain, water, sediments, etc issues associated with deep/horizontal bored wells.
Only recently are they "nay sayers". NY State has been a big user of NG since it's earliest days of being piped in.

There are lots of NG pipelines in NYS feeding gas to many of the cities. And some of the bigger pipe lines are passing through NYS. That's how New England gets almost all of it's gas - piped in through NYS.

And for many decades NYC area has been using "street gas" - piped in for heating and cooking. Even after it had been in common use for cooking back in the early 1900's, during and after WWII many of the coal furnaces and boilers were converted over to gas by taking out the grates and installing burners in the ash pit. We had street gas for cooking way out on long island well into Suffolk country at least 30 miles east of the city.

Thanks to the big Tennessee Valley pipeline that is feeding much of New England Melissa's father gets a nice yearly check for right of way on 77 acres of land he owns in western mass where the pipeline crosses it after coming in from crossing NYS. It pays enough that it almost completely offsets the property tax bill each year.

There are many gas wells here in CNY, and more were being explored for and drilled, up until a few years ago when our idiot governor pushed through a law placing a moratorium on drilling.

Most of NYS electrical power is from hydro power stations, the next biggest source of power is NG power plants, with just a few nuclear plants making up the rest. Those NG plants have it piped in.

So, NYS was very NG friendly right up until the governor recently caved into the eco-Nazis.

Paul

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Post By: wilder11354 » Mon. Dec. 03, 2018 11:39 pm

Sunny Boy wrote:
Sun. Dec. 02, 2018 10:20 am
Only recently are they "nay sayers". NY State has been a big user of NG since it's earliest days of being piped in.

There are lots of NG pipelines in NYS feeding gas to many of the cities. And some of the bigger pipe lines are passing through NYS. That's how New England gets almost all of it's gas - piped in through NYS.

And for many decades NYC area has been using "street gas" - piped in for heating and cooking. Even after it had been in common use for cooking back in the early 1900's, during and after WWII many of the coal furnaces and boilers were converted over to gas by taking out the grates and installing burners in the ash pit. We had street gas for cooking way out on long island well into Suffolk country at least 30 miles east of the city.

Thanks to the big Tennessee Valley pipeline that is feeding much of New England Melissa's father gets a nice yearly check for right of way on 77 acres of land he owns in western mass where the pipeline crosses it after coming in from crossing NYS. It pays enough that it almost completely offsets the property tax bill each year.

There are many gas wells here in CNY, and more were being explored for and drilled, up until a few years ago when our idiot governor pushed through a law placing a moratorium on drilling.

Most of NYS electrical power is from hydro power stations, the next biggest source of power is NG power plants, with just a few nuclear plants making up the rest. Those NG plants have it piped in.

So, NYS was very NG friendly right up until the governor recently caved into the eco-Nazis.

Paul
Yeaea OLD gas lines are ok.. New lines.... NO No!!


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