About 70% of plants on PJM grid to become uneconomic in 2023

 
User avatar
BigBarney
Member
Posts: 1853
Joined: Wed. Feb. 08, 2006 2:48 pm

Post by BigBarney » Wed. Jun. 23, 2021 2:50 pm

With the solar plants at about ~2 cents per kwhr on the bid for power they also

add ~1.4 cents for storage electric so power is available when needed.

Some power generators bid for the storage priced electric in peak times when

prices get to $50 kwhr or more to maximize their return on the extra investment

they make in the added facilities needed.Right at this moment we are at ~$25 per

kwhr on the NYISO .

BigBarney

 
User avatar
Rob R.
Site Moderator
Posts: 17980
Joined: Fri. Dec. 28, 2007 4:26 pm
Location: Chazy, NY
Stoker Coal Boiler: EFM 520
Hand Fed Coal Stove: Chubby Jr

Post by Rob R. » Wed. Jun. 23, 2021 3:04 pm

oros35 wrote:
Wed. Jun. 23, 2021 9:26 am
Chernobyl is as bad as it gets. They were a graphite moderated reactor that was an inherently unstable design. Their fuel was ejected through the roof of the building. They were an open design without a containment building. All other commercial reactors in the world are water moderated, with a containment building, and the design is night and day different in safety. Fukushima was minor compared to Chernobyl.

The world has learned from the last 60 years and events like Chernobyl. Designs have been changed to correct flaws. Even with Fukushima, there have been major design changes and response strategies implemented to ensure that even won't happen again. Yes, events can still happen, but the industry has learned from it's mistakes.
I recently did some reading on Chernobyl after I watched the HBO miniseries about it (highly recommended by the way).

There are still some of those RBMK reactors running - and they have no idea what to do with the graphite once the reactor is shut down. As I understand it the reactors are just shut down and left intact with hopes that someday they will have technology to deal with it.

 
User avatar
Richard S.
Mayor
Posts: 15184
Joined: Fri. Oct. 01, 2004 8:35 pm
Location: NEPA
Stoker Coal Boiler: Van Wert VA1200
Coal Size/Type: Buckwheat/Anthracite

Post by Richard S. » Wed. Jun. 23, 2021 5:28 pm

BigBarney wrote:
Wed. Jun. 23, 2021 2:50 pm
With the solar plants at about ~2 cents per kwhr on the bid for power they also

add ~1.4 cents for storage electric so power is available when needed.
That only works if you have guaranteed backup like coal, gas and nukes.

Let's suppose we replace all the capacity in the US with solar. We have this perfect fairy tale day across the entire US and you can meet demand for 8 hours while the sun is out. If we were to assume that demand over the next 16 hours is the same as the 8 hours. Your capacity requirements just doubled and you need the means to store all that power because it has to be produced during the 8 hours when the sun is shining.

Next day is cloudy? Your capacity requirements are now 3X and you need the means to store that.

When it's cloudy, 0 degrees out in January, utilities are hitting record demand at 8AM and it's going to be like that for a week?

Without means of backup your capacity and storage requirements balloon to astronomical amounts. Even if it were only a small percentage of say 5% the cost of coal/gas/nukes it would still not be economical and even with some stupendous investment it's still no guarantee because it's entirely dependent on the whims of Mother Nature.

Is this sinking in Barney?

 
User avatar
anthony7812
Member
Posts: 5141
Joined: Sat. Mar. 12, 2011 2:04 pm
Location: Colley,Pennsylvania
Stoker Coal Boiler: VanWert VA 400
Coal Size/Type: Buck/Anthracite

Post by anthony7812 » Wed. Jun. 23, 2021 7:03 pm

We may have learned better methods and engineering standards but it all boils down to the dollar of investment. All the safe practices and engineered designs to eliminate risks cost money. Sure some are mandated but why spend more to take it further if return of investment isn’t achievable.


 
grumpy
Member
Posts: 12288
Joined: Sat. Jan. 02, 2010 12:28 am

Post by grumpy » Wed. Jun. 23, 2021 9:19 pm

Nothing has been as bad as Fukishima, and its still as bad as day one. It cannot be compared to Chernobyl. Oh and BTW it has awakened.

 
User avatar
Richard S.
Mayor
Posts: 15184
Joined: Fri. Oct. 01, 2004 8:35 pm
Location: NEPA
Stoker Coal Boiler: Van Wert VA1200
Coal Size/Type: Buckwheat/Anthracite

Post by Richard S. » Wed. Jun. 23, 2021 11:56 pm

In what way can it be considered worse?

 
KLook
Member
Posts: 5791
Joined: Sun. Feb. 17, 2008 1:08 pm
Location: Harrison, Tenn
Other Heating: Wishing it was cold enough for coal here....not really

Post by KLook » Thu. Jun. 24, 2021 6:53 am

Let's suppose we replace all the capacity in the US with solar. We have this perfect fairy tale day across the entire US and you can meet demand for 8 hours while the sun is out. If we were to assume that demand over the next 16 hours is the same as the 8 hours. Your capacity requirements just doubled and you need the means to store all that power because it has to be produced during the 8 hours when the sun is shining.

Next day is cloudy? Your capacity requirements are now 3X and you need the means to store that.

When it's cloudy, 0 degrees out in January, utilities are hitting record demand at 8AM and it's going to be like that for a week?

Without means of backup your capacity and storage requirements balloon to astronomical amounts. Even if it were only a small percentage of say 5% the cost of coal/gas/nukes it would still not be economical and even with some stupendous investment it's still no guarantee because it's entirely dependent on the whims of Mother Nature.

Is this sinking in Barney?
It sinks in Richard, but following his typical troll methods, he leaves out the part of the story where energy use must decrease. Less energy, more costly. Who will suffer? The poor and middle class.

Kevin

 
grumpy
Member
Posts: 12288
Joined: Sat. Jan. 02, 2010 12:28 am

Post by grumpy » Thu. Jun. 24, 2021 7:17 pm

Richard S. wrote:
Wed. Jun. 23, 2021 11:56 pm
In what way can it be considered worse?
China syndrome times three..


 
User avatar
anthony7812
Member
Posts: 5141
Joined: Sat. Mar. 12, 2011 2:04 pm
Location: Colley,Pennsylvania
Stoker Coal Boiler: VanWert VA 400
Coal Size/Type: Buck/Anthracite

Post by anthony7812 » Fri. Jun. 25, 2021 7:19 am

Just put this in perspective from REAL LIFE EXPERIENCE. In the winter, we have trouble with batteries on well pad flow meters. They are charged via 2 4sqft solar arrays through a sunsaver to 2 12v batteries wired to produce 24volts for our flow meter. So 8sqft of solar arrays can’t keep 2 batteries charged enough to run 1 flow meter using 24v around .25amps for 12 hours. Extrapolate that to what a home needs and the size of the array you would want to plan for in the northeast during the winter. It’s just not economical. Green or not.

 
User avatar
coaledsweat
Site Moderator
Posts: 13763
Joined: Fri. Oct. 27, 2006 2:05 pm
Location: Guilford, Connecticut
Stoker Coal Boiler: Axeman Anderson 260M
Coal Size/Type: Pea

Post by coaledsweat » Sun. Jun. 27, 2021 6:01 am


 
User avatar
Richard S.
Mayor
Posts: 15184
Joined: Fri. Oct. 01, 2004 8:35 pm
Location: NEPA
Stoker Coal Boiler: Van Wert VA1200
Coal Size/Type: Buckwheat/Anthracite

Post by Richard S. » Sun. Jun. 27, 2021 6:19 am

You can't take the claim at face value but there is one company claiming they will have commercially viable fusion reactor in by the end of the decade.

https://techcrunch.com/2021/04/08/claiming-a-land ... n-by-2030/

If this happens and I think it's inevitable at some point, all these discussions are moot because any technology whether it's coal, solar or nuclear fission is obsolete overnight.

 
User avatar
BigBarney
Member
Posts: 1853
Joined: Wed. Feb. 08, 2006 2:48 pm

Post by BigBarney » Wed. Jun. 30, 2021 12:03 am

It will never be all one type of power generation , it will only be a shift

in the amount power that comes from each type during each time

period , by the lowest cost winning a larger share.

Nuclear and gas will provide the largest share of the base load and the

peaks filled in with storage electric. It will vary in each of ISO's due to each

having a different mix available , NYISO has near 0 coal whereas PJMISO

has about a 30% split between coal,nuclear and gas.

BigBarney

Post Reply

Return to “Coal News & General Coal Discussions”