Venezuela Blackout

 
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Post by oros35 » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 9:34 am

What will happen if you rely on one source of power. It's not pretty. People die. The US grid is in a much better position, but don't think it can't happen here. A few stars align (natural disaster, terrorist attack, unforeseen failure mechanism) and our grid could fail also.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/12/americas/venezuela ... index.html

Words from a friend:
"Let Venezuela be a lesson...

Did you ever have the power go out at your house and for the next few hours every time you go into a different room you find yourself invariably hitting the light switch, only to then remember that the power is out? Why do we do that?

Because it’s always there.

Subconsciously, even though we know that the power is out, we hit the switch anyway, because we are so mentally trained that the power is always on. Well, the people in Venezuela have stopped hitting the light switch...

Last Tuesday, most of the country experienced a large-scale blackout, much like the potential that we have talked about on this page many times. If you watched the video from the BBC, you may have noticed a few things about a true blackout that might not have occurred to you before.

A blackout is different than the isolated localized power outages that we’re all accustomed to. And it’s for a few reasons. For one, localized outages are relatively short-lived, and are easy for power companies to recover from. And that’s because the grid, as a whole, is still there. For another, even when the electricity is out, most other creature comforts that we’re used to (water, gas, phone, etc.) are still there. And that’s again because the grid, as a whole, is still there.

In a large-scale blackout, the game changes. Blackouts are not short-lived (Venezula has been in theirs for a week and counting). And that’s generally because large portions of the power system have to be brought back incrementally, to balance the load with the generation while keeping grid voltage relatively stable. Additionally, in most power systems (including ours), the vast majority of generators need the grid to be there to startup (i.e. most power plants are not capable of starting up and coming online without an external power source from the grid). These factors all make the process of complete grid recovery a slow and tedious one.

The second major difference in a full blackout might hit considerably closer to home, and it’s the reason Venezuelans have stopped “hitting the switch”. In a blackout, virtually nothing works, even those things we are all used to continuing to work even when the power goes out.

There’s no water. Getting that water to your house requires pumps and valves to get it there, and they can’t without electricity.

There’s no gas. See “water” explanation above.

There are no phones. Even if your cell phone happens to still be charged, it’s useless to you because the entire cellular network has no power either. And no, land lines don’t work either. They need power too.

Backup generators last only as long as their fuel supplies. See, diesel fuel delivery trucks can’t even get fuel without electricity, gas stations can’t dispense gasoline, and most diesel generators at hospitals and other critical infrastructure only have onsite fuel supplies for a day or two. So like the BBC piece so aptly states, those ICU patients are “in God’s hands”.

There’s no food. What is already available in stores is quickly looted, what’s already available in your refrigerator spoils in a few days time, and there are no means to get any new supplies to much of anyone.

So how did Venezuela get here?

While the Venezuelan government is blaming a U.S. conspiracy to cyber-attack their electricity grid to save face, the fact that the systems that monitor their electricity system are circa 1990 technology that aren’t even connected to the internet makes this claim sketchy at best. What is far more likely, and also has relevance to our discussion, is that a fault occurred on the main transmission line bringing power from Venezuela’s largest power plant.

You see, Venezuela is largely one dimensional in their generation of electricity. A single hydroelectric power plant at the Guri Dam provides almost 80% of the country’s electricity, making the grid extremely vulnerable to disruptions in supply coming from that single source. This is not unlike what we advocates of a diversified energy portfolio that includes the highly reliable benefits of nuclear power argue that our current energy markets are creating: A grid that will be highly dependent on, and highly vulnerable to, the supply of natural gas. And Venezuela is showing us the results of that type of vulnerability.

So the question is, what is protecting against such a vulnerability worth? If you ask PJM, nothing. The current electricity market structure takes no account for how electricity is generated. If in five years, 80% of our electricity is generated by natural gas, and all of the vulnerabilities that come along with that, the PJM market would say that’s just fine, and it’s what the “competitive” marketplace has dictated.

If you asked the people of Venezuela what that protection is worth, I bet they would tell you: Priceless."


 
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Post by coalkirk » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 10:08 am

You are preaching to the choir with me. I've posted here before about an EMP attack that could knockout our grid and lead to widespread death in fairly short order. Others here have scoffed at the notion. If you wanted to take on the USA, what better way to do so than to make us "blind." Most folks wouldn't last 6 months. Some country folks who hunt, etc., would survive. But with no food, water, medicine the casualty rate would be astronomical. Transformers are the main issue. None are made here and it would take well over a year to manufacture, ship and install new ones. Russia, China, North Korea and Iran all have invested in high yield EMP weapons. Such a weapon could be launched from a ship off our coast and detonated high in the atmosphere. With hypersonic missiles now being deployed by Russia it would happen fast. We wouldn't realize what had happened, just suddenly no power, cell phones don't work, vehicles don't start. Let all that simmer for a year and then launch an invasion.

 
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Post by CapeCoaler » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 10:22 am

Don't even need an EMP to take the grid down...
There are about 15 critical junction/transformer locations...
Not highly secured...
Take them out and you still have all the cars and electronics...
Won't have power but the vast majority of items will still work after you apply power again...
Same with cars trucks and trains...
It wo't be an external attack but an internal one...
Think about it some...

 
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Post by coalkirk » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 10:34 am

Well I suppose that could happen. It wouldn't be nearly as devastating and not likely to be done by a foreign actor. A missile launched from a ship which would then be scuttled to avoid identification would be far more likely in my opinion. The scenario you suggest would more likely be done by eco-terrorists.

 
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Post by franpipeman » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 12:39 pm

So Oros 35 are you saying that market forces ,since the PJM interconnection is a constructed market that only has a three year look ahead, can be destructive influence to the power grid especially PJM interconnection? Consequently, their is no long term look ahead as to how we will power the electrical grid after three years concerning sustainability security , and fuel type? Simply lowest price wins the choice?

 
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Post by CapeCoaler » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 1:09 pm

It wouldn't be nearly as devastating
It accomplishes the task...
Those locations would take years to rebuild...
Massive transformers and switches...
With long lead times...
It would take about 10 days till transport came to a halt...
Along with restocking the shelves...
And all you stuff would work once power is applied, selectively...
Those who 'Get with the program" get to have a better lifestyle...
The point is not to destroy but to convert and control...
Yep inside job...

 
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Post by CapeCoaler » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 1:11 pm

The power market is designed to get the cheapest power to market...
But subsidies alter the metrics...


 
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Post by lsayre » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 2:00 pm

I wouldn't be surprised if right around (or not long after) the time that we achieve 80% of our nations electricity from NG, the fracked NG supply peaks and goes into a prolonged but terminal decline.

 
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Post by warminmn » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 2:33 pm

lsayre wrote:
Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 2:00 pm
I wouldn't be surprised if right around (or not long after) the time that we achieve 80% of our nations electricity from NG, the fracked NG supply peaks and goes into a prolonged but terminal decline.
Or they create a limited supply illusion so they can start gouging, like oil has been doing for decades. Im unsure if we will ever get to the 80% mark though, but I do not have the present figures in front of me, so it may be possible.

We are extremely unprepared as a nation for any type of huge electrical problem. Dont be thinking generators are the answer if it becomes long term. Its much better to be able to live without any type of power or assistance. Hunting only lasts so long cuz thats what all the unprepared will be doing, and soon the game is gone.

 
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Post by CapeCoaler » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 3:39 pm

The Ice Man will make a return...
LOL...

 
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Post by coaledsweat » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 5:45 pm

CapeCoaler wrote:
Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 3:39 pm
The Ice Man will make a return...
LOL...
He'll need a wheelbarrow after they eat all the horses.

 
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Post by warminmn » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 6:22 pm

No horses here.

If you really take a look at what you use, electrical stuff, the most important is usually water, even if the city is providing it. Heat if you are using electric for it. Something to cook with. refrigeration is sometimes important (if you keep beer on hand, lol) you can live without your TV, cell phone, internet, your washer and dryer, your George Foreman grill, hair dryer, toaster, etc, etc. What that leaves is being prepared for at least a couple weeks of living without the important electric things and the hell with the unimportant. Your results may vary :lol: I dont even own a generator but have thought about it.

but go ahead and prepare anyway you want too. Or just trust your govt to provide you with everything in case of emergency... let me know how that works out ;)

 
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Post by CapeCoaler » Thu. Mar. 14, 2019 9:44 pm

Clean water to drink and make food...
Hand fired coal stove...
Food...
Depends who the government ends up being...
Most have never dealt with 3rd world status...
Especially a first world country like Venezuela...
The Socialists fixed that...
Let it be an example for us what can happen...
In the Dominican Republic similar but lesser scale electrical issues happen...
Rolling blackouts usually about 8 hours, almost like clockwork...
So much so every one had a battery backup good for 8-12 hours...
Would recharge while the power was on...
Tesla power wall before our government subsidized elon musk...
Had a floating power station in the port...
But failed to pay the oil bill...
or the lease on the plant...
Corrupt government relying on graft and stealing cash...

 
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Post by BigBarney » Fri. Mar. 15, 2019 3:27 pm

Point of all your information is to never be placed in a

situation where you rely on one source of energy and it's

delivery . They have proposed a new underground trans-

mission line from the Iowa windfarms to the grid near

Chicago IL to the PJM so as to use this renewable resource

to power the PJM grid , and I'm all for more diversity of

our power supply.

https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-io ... story.html

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/independent-deve ... ng/550399/

Keep even a few subsidized plants just for an emergency ,

but keep going ahead with cheaper and cleaner sources .

BigBarney

 
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Post by Richard S. » Fri. Mar. 15, 2019 3:40 pm

BigBarney wrote:
Fri. Mar. 15, 2019 3:27 pm
Keep even a few subsidized plants just for an emergency ,
There is no keeping a "few", when the wind is not blowing and sun isn't shining you need to fully meet power demand or you will have a power failure. Period, no discussion about it. Those systems are absolutely irrelevant where reliability is concerned.


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