About 70% of plants on PJM grid to become uneconomic in 2023

 
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BigBarney
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Post by BigBarney » Tue. Jun. 08, 2021 1:14 pm

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-0 ... ney-losers

With base electric at $50 a MWHr all coal is uneconomic.

Many utilities are signing long term contracts for power at less than $0.02 per KWHr

so $0.05 and up power is completely out of the market range.

National Grid ,my utility, has a residential rate last month of $0.03638 per KWHr well below

the 5 cent rate. Most of my bill is the delivery portion of the bill at $0.06239356 per KWHr.

Of course you have to add on the state and regularity fees.

BigBarney


 
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KLook
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Post by KLook » Tue. Jun. 08, 2021 4:53 pm

Who are they signing contracts with? Magic unicorn powerplants? Solar and wind subsidized by our tax dollars? Free energy beamed in from Uranus? I hope you say Nuclear because it is the only real world solution at this time.

Kevin

 
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Post by Rob R. » Tue. Jun. 08, 2021 5:11 pm

Even if unprofitable "most of the time" many old plants will need to be subsidized if you want power "all of the time".

I am happy to pay for reliability. Perhaps they should offer an option for people that don't mind having their power shut off occasionally.

 
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KLook
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Post by KLook » Tue. Jun. 08, 2021 6:20 pm

I wonder how he is going to charge in "off peak" times when the sun is not shining and the wind aint blowing......

Kevin

 
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Post by warminmn » Tue. Jun. 08, 2021 7:42 pm

Paying almost 12 cents a KW here 24/7 plus over 40/month fee. Wish I had rates like BB. Or even off peak rates but no such thing here. My power comes from lots of sources including coal. It has nowhere to go but up in price. The last hike was because 600 people had added solar and/or wind power to their homes, plus less power used overall.

I'll hate electric cars even more when Im staring at solar panels and windmills every day here starting in 2 years. Without EV's we probably wouldnt even need wind or solar farms, just privately owned ones.

 
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Post by gaw » Wed. Jun. 09, 2021 8:23 am

Someone do the math and show me your work and I'll jump on board. It is possible to figure what is real and what is pie in the sky if you put in the work but don't start throwing around fantastic numbers people want to believe without any curiosity how it will work. Ponzi schemes work for a while but ultimately have to fail.

 
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Post by oros35 » Wed. Jun. 09, 2021 10:13 am

The key here is the power is being replaced by Natural Gas. Coal is out, NG is in. And in the process, it's killing Nuclear plants too. So net result is increased Carbon emissions at a rate that outweighs any gains in solar or wind. People are blind to the big picture.


 
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Post by anthony7812 » Wed. Jun. 09, 2021 10:58 am

Its the spent nuclear waste. If only a way to neutralize it, its over... nuclear hands down. This is coming from a Natural gas field guy. Cradle to grave even now nuclear has edge. But a natural gas compression station burning down could result in just property damage and its over. Nuclear however, hasnt had that track record on incidents. \

Back to main point,
Rising cost of all fossils fuels will result in everything increasing in cost. Just like taxes. I still believe the 4 dollar a gallon gas and other fuel prices contributed heavily in the 08 market tank.

 
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Post by BigBarney » Wed. Jun. 09, 2021 6:27 pm

warminmn:

My rate is similar to yours with the"DISTRIBUTION COSTS " added in... From 26 May 21 Bill...

The off peak rate is a big savings....~80% off....

Peak Delivery $0.0788 Supply $0.04496 per KWHr plus fees ~$0.124

Off peak Delivery $0.01188339 Supply $0.01423 per KWHr plus fees ~$0.0262

Will need batteries or some other way to move use to the off peak, when much cheaper power is available.

I am looking to off peak storage heaters for next winter, buy the KWHr at night and use in daytime.

Will get the electric from our vehicles if at home,when bidirectional power is in the vehicles,similar to the

Ford 150 which has 240v output to your home.

BigBarney

 
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Post by warminmn » Wed. Jun. 09, 2021 7:43 pm

BigBarney wrote:
Wed. Jun. 09, 2021 6:27 pm
warminmn:

My rate is similar to yours with the"DISTRIBUTION COSTS " added in... From 26 May 21 Bill...

The off peak rate is a big savings....~80% off....

Peak Delivery $0.0788 Supply $0.04496 per KWHr plus fees ~$0.124

Off peak Delivery $0.01188339 Supply $0.01423 per KWHr plus fees ~$0.0262

Will need batteries or some other way to move use to the off peak, when much cheaper power is available.

I am looking to off peak storage heaters for next winter, buy the KWHr at night and use in daytime.

Will get the electric from our vehicles if at home,when bidirectional power is in the vehicles,similar to the

Ford 150 which has 240v output to your home.

BigBarney
Your off peak rates are great. It makes sense to use it at that price. But will it stay that cheap long term? Until then enjoy it and take advantage of it. I sure would. I'd be running my water heater on a night timer for sure. Thats my #1 electric eater. Even electric heat would be affordable at night at those prices. Adding electric storage would make sense at those prices too, as you mention. I wonder if your off-time electric will stay as low when more people are charging EV's at night in years to come?

 
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Post by Berlin » Wed. Jun. 09, 2021 8:31 pm

BigBarney wrote:
Tue. Jun. 08, 2021 1:14 pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-0 ... ney-losers

With base electric at $50 a MWHr all coal is uneconomic.

Many utilities are signing long term contracts for power at less than $0.02 per KWHr

so $0.05 and up power is completely out of the market range.

National Grid ,my utility, has a residential rate last month of $0.03638 per KWHr well below

the 5 cent rate. Most of my bill is the delivery portion of the bill at $0.06239356 per KWHr.

Of course you have to add on the state and regularity fees.

BigBarney
Ted, This is nonsense.

Many coal-fired plants especially older ones produce power at a profit for around .02/kwh, newer ones .03-.038 / kwh. So those are the facts, pehaps you should be skeptical of a Bloomberg news article being even remotely unbiased.

What is helping coal be "unprofitable" is the massive construction subsidies given to intermittent power sources like wind and solar. So the capital costs are subsidized by the taxpayer, purchasers receive subsidies to purchase renewables, and are forced to purchase a certain amount under contract. When wind and solar at their own whim (wind blowing or sun shining) produce large amounts of power it depresses the market price of power. So baseload throttles back (running at lower efficiency) which increases coals cost per kwh.

So wind and solar may artificially appear competitive with coal, but, it's sleight of hand that a most basic understanding of power markets would expose. Unfortunately if you understand this only through reporting you will be badly misinformed. The reporting on this is mostly biased or ignorant and misleading and wrong.

Another seemingly common theme you have is that coal plants that have closed or are slated for shutdown are doing so because they are uneconomic to operate. I have been expaining this is untrue for years to counter the falsehoods even on this very forum. The vast majority that have closed, have closed due primarily to activist pressure. period.

Ted, I appreciate a good trolling as much as anyone, but, If I was going to go on a corvette forum and say "corvettes suck" I would make a better case than to post biased, misleading and uninformed propaganda from "mustang monthly"

 
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Post by freetown fred » Wed. Jun. 09, 2021 9:26 pm

So there B!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I'd say that pretty well covers the whole she-bang nicely!! :)

 
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Post by KLook » Wed. Jun. 09, 2021 9:44 pm

+1 and more Fred!!!

Kevin

 
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Post by BigBarney » Wed. Jun. 16, 2021 9:28 pm

Simple math tells why coal is becoming uneconomical....

Energy from 1 ton of coal is ~2500 KWHr .

Thermal coal @ $40.00 a ton.

So one KWHr costs $0.016 for the cost of only the coal.

All the other cost have to be added .

Cost of electric at lows of ~$20.00 per MWHr on the PJM interconnect.

How can you even break even on coal plants even old ones that have long ago been

depreciated to 0 ?

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insight ... orm-needed

Three more coal plants to close and the reasons...

https://www.post-gazette.com/business/powersource ... 2106100123

BigBarney

 
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Post by Bubbalowe » Thu. Jun. 17, 2021 7:14 pm

Spent nuclear fuel and EV batteries are a concern, more so than fly ash. Maybe Elon Musk can make trash hauler capsules and send spent fuel rods and batteries into the Sun for disposal, minus the concrete sarcophagus of course. No more silly than sending a car to Mars. Do admit some surprise at the number of roof solar panels going up at current prices, hopefully it's like the first VHS machine that sold originally for $1500 and ended up at $75. Guess all the EV's on the road are "driving" the trend for a home fuel station?


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