Thoughts on the 2022-2023 winter

 
k-2
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Post by k-2 » Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 11:59 am

I usually get a 1 yr supply in the fall. Ill try to get it sooner this yr. Prices should be coming back down as they followed oil prices up but oil is now coming back down. Problem is if everyone tries to stock up with 2 or 3 yrs worth of coal that alone will create a shortage and keep prices from coming back down.


 
Dreamcatcher
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Post by Dreamcatcher » Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 12:23 pm

I agree I don’t think we should be stocking up for 3years but I think it would be a good idea to get this year’s coal stocked up A lot of you guys have more experience with coal then me but I have never seen coal come down in the winter and especially this year with what is going on in the world And maybe next year will be better year We can only hope

 
k-2
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Post by k-2 » Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 12:57 pm

Dreamcatcher wrote:
Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 12:23 pm
I agree I don’t think we should be stocking up for 3years but I think it would be a good idea to get this year’s coal stocked up A lot of you guys have more experience with coal then me but I have never seen coal come down in the winter and especially this year with what is going on in the world And maybe next year will be better year We can only hope
Yea lots of panic buying going on. Im not that worried about supply this winter,with all the panic buying now there should be plenty of supply piling up in the fall. The time to stock up is when the price is down.

 
hank2
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Post by hank2 » Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 2:06 pm

I'm not trying to be a pessimist, but I've never seen home heating Anthracite prices drop very much if any when oil prices drop. The demand for all the main uses for Anthracite will continue to be crazy and crazier
for the foreseeable future. Especially Europe and Asia. The former no. 1 Anthracite exporter. North Korea has been mostly shut down on that. The former no. 3 exporter, Ukraine, has bigger problems. We can only hope that things play out the best possible way over the next 2 years.

 
k-2
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Post by k-2 » Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 3:59 pm

I think part of the problem is some companies are taking coal powered plants out of mothballs and firing them up. And its not possible to ramp up coal production that fast .

Germany to reactivate coal power plants as Russia curbs gas flow.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/08/ger ... s-gas-flow

 
lincolnmania
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Post by lincolnmania » Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 4:58 pm

I have never seen coal come down in price, only up.

Been burning it since winter 2005-2006

 
nut
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Post by nut » Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 6:18 pm

These are exceptional increases though. I'm optimistic prices will drop in a year or so.


 
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Post by hank2 » Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 11:05 pm

k-2 wrote:
Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 3:59 pm
I think part of the problem is some companies are taking coal powered plants out of mothballs and firing them up. And its not possible to ramp up coal production that fast .

Germany to reactivate coal power plants as Russia curbs gas flow.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/08/ger ... s-gas-flow
There was a lot of hi-fiving among coal haters when Germany supposedly closed their last coal mine several years ago. I'm nearly certain that was an Anthracite mine. Maybe the last fabled Westphalian hard coal operation. The power plants they are reopening now were mothballed in perfect shape, German style. They actually are Lignite burners, combustible brown dirt. I believe they have their own Lignite mines as well as other Euro sources. Maybe they could burn Bit if they could get it? Right now, only one of the 16 Lignite plants has applied to go back on line. Meanwhile, nat. gas prices are expected to quadruple there. Large numbers of families have already become homeless there due to energy costs in the past few years.

India has been near national meltdown from coal shortages. I forget how many coal gen plants they have, but 40 new ones are planned. China also has a great many and plans another 10-20. A good bit of the Pa. Anthracite that has gone to China in the past has been for water filtration use.
Last edited by hank2 on Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 11:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.

 
hank2
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Post by hank2 » Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 11:26 pm

lincolnmania wrote:
Fri. Aug. 05, 2022 4:58 pm
I have never seen coal come down in price, only up.

Been burning it since winter 2005-2006
I think you're right LM. Burning since 1977. The only time I went down in cost was when I would switch from a source that did coal as a sideline ( feed mill, landscape joint) to a dedicated hauler or yard. There used to be a lot of them, very few now. Maybe a slight drop if motor fuel prices really crashed. There was a very long Anthracite miners' union strike sometime about the early 80's that made Anthracite nonexistent or very scarce. The price took a big jump after that. Their operating costs also go up like everyone else's. Part of the current gouge by the bigger operations is due to customers who will pay almost anything for it now.

 
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Post by Sunny Boy » Sat. Aug. 06, 2022 7:00 am

"Gouge" is the word.

As bad as economic costs have gotten, the operating costs are nowhere near as high as some operations prices have jumped to blame it on inflation, the economy, Putin, or all.

Yes, foreign demand is up, but is all of that demand for anthracite? Our resident Lehigh rep says Lehigh is not shipping any out of the country, so why has their price jumped well over 100% ? As high as fuel prices got, they are still only a part of the operating costs, not all.

My local Lehigh dealer goes through many tractor trailer loads a year. When I checked with them a couple of weeks ago, which is the time they are placing their big order for the season, they were still looking for another supplier. And I think they are likely not the only dealer doing so. It doesn't take much to price yourself out of business when you don't have a monopoly on the market.

I think we will see more people quietly switching to other heating sources such as wood and wood pellets and less demand for coal, once the panic buying settles down.

And for many, it's not a matter of which fuel is more convenient, but what fuel they can afford. At over $400.00 a ton for coal, wood just got a whole lot better looking, even if having to pay someone to deliver and stack it, it would still be a few thousand dollars less for the season.

Paul

 
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Post by mntbugy » Sat. Aug. 06, 2022 10:57 am

2022-23 Farmers Almanac predictions is out.

Got coal? If not put your longjohns on with electric blanket. Sleep seven in a bed counting the hounds. Burn your furniture if ya have too.

 
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Post by k-2 » Sat. Aug. 06, 2022 11:05 am

I only use 4 ton a winter so even at the high prices its just over a grand. Thats if i can get some. The only heating fuel that hasnt gone completely nuts is Nat gas here in central PA. I have a huge house with Nat gas that im rehabbing to sell and my highest monthly bill last winter was $180.00 , Up just a few dollars from 2020-2021 winter.

 
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Post by lincolnmania » Sat. Aug. 06, 2022 11:12 am

k-2 wrote:
Sat. Aug. 06, 2022 11:05 am
I only use 4 ton a winter so even at the high prices its just over a grand. Thats if i can get some. The only heating fuel that hasnt gone completely nuts is Nat gas here in central PA. I have a huge house with Nat gas that im rehabbing to sell and my highest monthly bill last winter was $180.00 , Up just a few dollars from 2020-2021 winter.
Sherman and Superior only raised their prices 30 dollars a ton to $200 a ton last week. They are not too far from coal township. i'll bet there is some lower price coal in the lower valley too.

 
k-2
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Post by k-2 » Sat. Aug. 06, 2022 11:27 am

lincolnmania wrote:
Sat. Aug. 06, 2022 11:12 am
Sherman and Superior only raised their prices 30 dollars a ton to $200 a ton last week. They are not too far from coal township. i'll bet there is some lower price coal in the lower valley too.
Where are they located? Sherman and Superior. I usually buy from Harmony but they are closer to $300 now.

 
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Post by Retro_Origin » Sat. Aug. 06, 2022 11:34 am

k-2 wrote:
Sat. Aug. 06, 2022 11:27 am
Where are they located? Sherman and Superior. I usually buy from Harmony but they are closer to $300 now.
Sherman is right off exit 112 on i81. Superior is down behind valleyview/hegins. Both owned by same outfit, different coal to each breaker.


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