Russia will probably have to reduce the price to India, or sell less than it has been selling. The same for others who buy from Russia. So Russian oil will continue to move into the world market, and much may travel via circuitous routes and wind up roughly where it has been going all along. Less money for the producer Russia, more money spent on moving the oil via less-efficient routes. The end result is, no big crunch on oil supplies for the world overall, and some effect for better or worse on prices.coalnewbie wrote: ↑Tue. May. 31, 2022 12:57 pmAs a really old broken down old fart I remember the 70/80 energy crunch and this is potentially much worse. India gets given 25x its usual allocation and happens to have the biggest refinery in the world. Refined products can't be traced. So Russia makes out like a bandit as does India.
That's all guesstimation and speculation on my part. Meanwhile US producers cut back during the pandemic, due to lack of demand, and have been slow to ramp up production, perhaps because they have guesstimated/speculated the same as I did. Or because they enjoy the higher profits of shorter supply? There are so many moving parts it's hard to know where things will end up.
