Post
by Max2012 » Fri. Aug. 24, 2018 12:28 pm
Hi All,
it's not fun to talk about politics, money and economics ... from what I understand, at least for some period of time ahead(possibly the next 40yrs), we're heading into an inflationary period, for most countries, Western/US government bond yields peaked in the late 70's up until the great rotation from bonds to stocks completed in 1981, since then bond yields have been falling and bottomed out probably in the 3rd/4th quarter of 2016 ... and now if the Western/American led international debt markets behave in the historic and customary fashion the yields (driven by interest rates rising) will start rising due to the inflation from the peak of bond/debt issuance from the last this last 37yr cycle ... the debt now has to be paid back and that is when interest rates start rising in the next great rotation cycle, this time from stocks to bonds, defaults on Sovereign debt are beginning, i.e.-- Venezuelan Inflation is projected to hit 1 million percent by the end of this year. Many financial industry representatives that I pay attention to are expecting it to get ugly as prices rise from the amazing run up in the stock market and bond price run up due to the cheap debt/money (from falling interest rates) that has fueled this last 37yrs of growth ... it is unprecedented and I believe most folks sense it coming.
Price inflation here in the US at this point is tame at this time and we may actually experience a dramatic decline here in the not distant future ... does anyone know for sure?
I try to pay attention in order to survive ... not an expert here and hopefully my comments do not upset anyone or contaminate this very informative, enjoyable message board and website.
Max